← HeldenTaverne Jena Store Championship Mercurial Heart
Fire EruptingTier 2
at HeldenTaverne Jena Store Championship Mercurial Heart
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.0%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1244
· median 1244
· range 1244–1244
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1109
Q1 1185
Q3 1350
1510
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Erupting decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
